Tuesday Markets: Trade Wars, Crypto Surges & Big Moves

Morning, legends!

It’s Tuesday, and the markets are moving—so grab a strong cup of tea (none of that overpriced coffee nonsense) and let’s dive into what’s happening and, more importantly, what you need to watch today.

💥 Markets: Risk-Off, But Europe’s Holding Up

It’s looking choppy out there, folks. Wall Street had a rough start to the week, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.2%, the Dow losing 1.9%, and the Nasdaq getting absolutely slapped—down 3%. But in a twist of fate, Europe’s flying—the FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX hit record highs, riding a wave of defense stocks and, surprisingly, solid economic data.

🔹 Sectors to Watch: Defensive plays are holding firm (think utilities & healthcare), while growth stocks are getting dumped. Energy stocks also took a hit as oil prices slid (more on that below).

🌍 Politics: Trade War 2.0 & European Power Moves

Trump’s got his tariff guns blazing again. He’s just confirmed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods (excluding Canadian energy, which gets a 10% rate). China? Another 10% slap coming in April. Markets hate trade wars, so expect volatility here.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, leaders are scrambling to keep Ukraine’s defense solid after Trump’s Oval Office showdown with Zelenskiy. The UK’s Keir Starmer hosted an emergency summit, and now Britain and France are pushing for a “coalition of the willing” to keep Ukraine supplied. Defense stocks are loving it—BAE Systems is up 14.5%, and Italy’s Leonardo jumped 16%.

📌 Takeaway: Tariffs = potential inflation comeback (watch the Fed). Europe’s defense splurge = booming military stocks.

🛢️ Commodities: Oil Slumps, Gold Stalls

• Oil took a nosedive after OPEC+ hinted at increasing production—WTI crude is now in the high $60s, and Brent crude is flirting with $71. More supply = lower prices, but watch for geopolitical shocks.

• Gold’s still hanging around $2,900/oz, just below its recent record high ($2,956). A dip below $2,790 could mean more downside, but let’s be real—gold loves uncertainty, and there’s plenty of that right now.

📌 Takeaway: If the dollar keeps sliding, gold should hold up. If rate cuts get delayed, gold might dip further.

🚀 Big Movers: Who’s Pumping & Who’s Dumping?

📉 Nvidia (NVDA): -7% – Reports that its AI chips are still making their way to China sent the stock tumbling. If the US slaps stricter export rules, expect more downside.
📈 BAE Systems (BA.): +14.5% – Riding the European defense spending wave like an absolute champ.
📉 Bunzl (BNZL.L): -8% – UK stock got wrecked after disappointing earnings.

📌 Takeaway: Watch defense stocks, and be cautious on tech names facing geopolitical risks.

💷 FX: Dollar Dips, GBP Holds Strong

• The euro’s popping (+1%) on optimism about European economic resilience.

• The British pound is holding firm after Starmer managed to keep the UK out of Trump’s tariff crosshairs.

• The Japanese yen is gaining, which tells you investors are moving to safety amid all this uncertainty.

📌 Takeaway: FX markets are pricing in risk, so watch for further dollar weakness if inflation cools.

🟠 Crypto: Trump Saves Bitcoin (For Now)

If you thought crypto was about to collapse, Trump had other ideas. The big man announced plans for a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, specifically naming Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano.

🔹 Bitcoin pumped 9% to $94,000
🔹 Ethereum surged 13% above $2,500
🔹 Altcoins exploded—XRP, SOL, and ADA ripped higher

BUT… a lot of this rally was hype-driven, and the market’s already giving back some gains. If there’s no actual follow-through on Trump’s crypto policy, expect a retrace.

📌 Takeaway: Short-term hype = volatility. Long-term? Crypto’s still in the game, but regulation will dictate the next move.

🔥 What to Watch Today:

👀 More Trump Tariff Fallout – Could we see retaliation from Canada, Mexico, or China?
📉 Tech Stocks Under Pressure – Nvidia’s drop could drag AI & chip stocks down further.
📊 ECB Rate Decision (Thursday) – Will they cut? Markets are betting on it.
🟠 Crypto Volatility – Will the Trump hype hold, or is this another fakeout?

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🚀 Final Thought: Stay Nimble, Stay Smart

It’s a wild trading environment right now. Between trade wars, geopolitics, and central bank moves, opportunities are everywhere—if you know where to look.

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Catch you all soon—keep it real, keep it profitable.

Cheers,
Samuel Leach