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Monday 11 May 2026 | Issue #005 | Live Market Edition
The Deal Collapses: What the US-Iran Breakdown Means for Markets
Iran's counterproposal was just rejected as "totally unacceptable." With the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, oil volatility is surging. Here is how I am reading the situation.
Samuel Leach · Samuel & Co Trading · 5 min read
The Big Picture
A False Dawn for Energy Markets
Last week, markets were pricing in peace. Oil prices plunged nearly 15% in a single day on hopes that a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran was imminent. Today, that optimism has evaporated.
Iran delivered its counterproposal via Pakistani mediators over the weekend. While Tehran described it as "realistic and positive," the response from Washington was immediate and blunt. President Trump took to social media to call the terms "totally unacceptable."
The sticking point remains the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global seaborne crude oil passes through this narrow waterway. Iran's proposal treated the reopening of the Strait as a future negotiating point, rather than an immediate concession. For the US, that was a non-starter.
The breakdown means the war premium is being aggressively priced back into the market. WTI crude swung violently between $88 and $107 last week, and we can expect more of that whiplash as traders react to every headline.
Why You Should Care
This is not just an oil story. Sustained high energy prices filter through to everything. They act as a tax on consumers, squeeze corporate margins, and most importantly, they keep inflation sticky. If energy-driven inflation persists, central banks will be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer, complicating the outlook for equities.
Live Market Snapshot
Today's Numbers — 11 May 2026
Here is where the key assets stand right now, with live data pulled this morning.
| Asset | Live Price | Day | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil (Brent) | $104.13 / bbl | +2.80% | War premium returning |
| VIX | 18.19 | +5.82% | Volatility ticking up |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,677 / oz | -1.13% | Slight pullback from highs |
| S&P 500 | 7,415 | -0.05% | Flat ahead of data |
| FTSE 100 | 8,398 | +0.84% | Energy sector providing lift |
| GBP/USD | 1.3604 | -0.18% | Dollar strength returning |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $80,720 | -0.13% | Holding the $80k line |
Samuel's Trading Playbook
How I Am Trading The Headlines
When geopolitics take the wheel, technicals take a back seat. The next 48 hours are critical to see if both sides return to the table or dig their heels in.
I am avoiding aggressive directional bets on crude right now. The headline risk is too high. A single tweet can move oil $5 in either direction. Instead, I am looking at the secondary effects. If oil stays above $100, that is a tailwind for the FTSE 100 (heavy in energy and commodities) and a headwind for the broader US consumer discretionary sector.
I am also keeping a close eye on Gold. At $4,677, it is consolidating after a massive run. If the rhetoric between Washington and Tehran escalates further this week, expect a swift test of the $4,700 level as safe-haven flows accelerate.
Stay nimble. In a headline-driven market, capital preservation is your primary objective.
Samuel Leach
Founder, Samuel & Co Trading
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This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All market data sourced from Yahoo Finance as of 11 May 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and you may lose more than your initial investment.
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