Tuesday 5 May 2026  |  Issue #003  |  Live Market Edition

Disney Faces the Music as the Fed Holds Steady

The Fed held rates at 3.75%. The US jobs report is looming. Disney and Apple earnings take centre stage. Here is how I am reading it all.

Samuel Leach  ·  Samuel & Co Trading  ·  6 min read

The Big Picture

Earnings Resilience Offsets Macro Noise

As I write this on Tuesday afternoon, the S&P 500 is sitting at 7,200 and the Nasdaq is at 25,067. We are seeing a bit of a pullback today, but the broader picture remains one of resilience. US equities oscillated early in the week before finishing strong last week, driven by solid Big Tech earnings.

The backdrop being: the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee held its benchmark interest rate steady at a target range of 3.50%-3.75%. Fed officials have now voted three times in 2026 to keep the target at this level. Jerome Powell noted the US economy is expanding at a solid pace, but inflation remains elevated.

The reason equities are holding up? Q1 US GDP rebounded to a 2.0% annualised growth rate, driven by private investment and AI-related spending. The market is shrugging off the 'higher for longer' rate narrative because corporate earnings are delivering the goods.

UK Markets

Bank of England Holds Firm, Pound Stays Strong

The FTSE 100 is down 0.87% today, trading at 10,273. It started May on a down note, dragged lower by banking stocks after NatWest's earnings report. However, the index remains supported by energy and mining heavyweights.

The big news locally is the Bank of England. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The Bank signalled that rates could rise later this year owing to inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict. This hawkish hold has kept the pound well supported.

GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3542, holding firm above the key 1.35 level. The divergence in tone between a cautious Fed and a slightly more hawkish BoE is providing a solid floor for sterling.

US Markets & Key Events This Week

Disney, Apple, and the Jobs Report

This week is all about consumer resilience and the labour market. Disney reports earnings today, and the options market is pricing in a 6% move. Consensus calls for $25.03B in revenue. We will be watching the Disney+ margin glide path and parks segment closely to gauge consumer spending health.

Apple also reports this week, looking to build on the momentum of strong iPhone 17 demand. But the main macro event is the April Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The market expects the US economy to have added around 178,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.

Kalshi traders are actually pricing in a 50% chance that nonfarm payrolls will come in much lower, at 66,000 jobs or more. If we see a significant miss on the downside, it could reignite hopes for a Fed rate cut later this year, potentially boosting equities but weighing on the dollar.

Live Market Snapshot

Today's Numbers — 5 May 2026, 9:00 AM EDT

Here is where the key assets stand right now, with live data pulled this morning.

Diary: Key Events This Week

For Those Who Love Trading & Studying

The Code That Broke Wall Street

If you love trading and studying the markets, this one is essential viewing. It tells the story of a trader who made $11 billion using algorithms — and breaks down exactly how mathematical models and systematic approaches can remove human emotion from trading entirely. In a week as volatile as this one, that is a lesson worth revisiting.

Samuel's Trading Playbook

How I Am Approaching This Week

This week is about navigating the space between corporate earnings and macroeconomic data. We have a cautious Fed, a hawkish BoE, and a massive jobs report on Friday.

On US equities, I am playing it defensively ahead of Friday. The S&P 500 is pulling back slightly from record highs. I want to see how the market digests the Disney and Apple earnings before committing new capital. If Friday's jobs report comes in hot, we could see a sharper pullback as rate cut hopes fade further.

On GBP/USD, the 1.35 level remains my line in the sand. The BoE's 8-1 vote to hold rates at 3.75%, coupled with warnings about inflation, gives sterling a solid fundamental backing. I am looking for long setups on dips towards 1.3500, targeting 1.3650 in the medium term.

On oil, crude is easing back to $104 after the recent spike. The geopolitical premium is still there, but if we see any de-escalation, oil could quickly drop back below $100. I am keeping stops tight on any long positions.

On gold, it is holding up well around $4,555 despite the Fed's hold. Gold is acting as a safe haven amid the macro noise. I am watching the $4,500 support level; if it holds, the trend remains bullish.

On Bitcoin, the push past $80k is significant. The crypto market is showing constructive price action independent of traditional equities right now. I am holding core positions but not adding aggressively at these elevated levels.

Stay sharp, manage your risk, and trade well this week.

Samuel Leach

Founder, Samuel & Co Trading

samuelandcotrading.com

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This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All market data sourced from Yahoo Finance as of 5 May 2026, 9:00 AM EDT. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and you may lose more than your initial investment.

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