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Tech is at record highs. Oil is at $102. Here is what I am doing.
Samuel Leach
April 27, 2026
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Monday 27 April 2026 | Issue #002 | Live Market Edition |
This Week's Big Story The Great Divide: Tech Hits Records While Oil Squeezes the RestThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at all-time highs. Brent crude is at $102. Iran peace talks are stalling. The Magnificent Seven report this week. Here is how I am reading it all. Samuel Leach · Samuel & Co Trading · 6 min read |
The Big Picture Records Up Top, Pressure UnderneathAs I write this on Monday afternoon, the S&P 500 is sitting at 7,174 and the Nasdaq is at 24,882 — both at or near record highs. The S&P is on track for its 12th intraday record of 2026. That is a remarkable run given the backdrop. The backdrop being: the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. Iran has put forward a new proposal to reopen it, but is pushing nuclear negotiations to a later date — which is a red line for the White House. Traffic through the waterway remained near zero this morning. Brent crude is up over 3% today, trading around $102 a barrel, with Goldman Sachs forecasting an average of $90 for Q4. The reason equities are holding up? Semiconductors and mega-cap tech are doing the heavy lifting. Intel jumped 23.6% last week. AMD rose 14%. Alphabet hit its first intraday record since February today. The AI data-centre trade is very much alive. But the Dow is down 0.15% as we speak, showing just how narrow this rally is.
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UK Markets FTSE Under Pressure, But the Pound is HoldingThe FTSE 100 is down 0.56% today, trading at 10,321. The index is caught between two forces: the energy and mining heavyweights are benefiting from the oil spike, but consumer-facing names and airlines are getting hammered. Jet fuel prices are reportedly 105% higher than a year ago, and major carriers are cutting flights as a result. The more interesting story is the pound. GBP/USD is at 1.3539 and holding firm above 1.35. The reason is that UK inflation is proving stickier than expected. The Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel showed companies now expect price growth of 4.4% over the next 12 months, up sharply from 3.7% in March. That has effectively killed off the aggressive rate-cut expectations that were priced in just a month ago. Markets are now only pricing in 25 basis points of cuts over the next year. The UK composite PMI also came in at 52.0 for April, well ahead of the 49.9 consensus forecast. Growth is picking up. The challenge is that it is picking up alongside inflation, which puts the Bank of England in an uncomfortable position.
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US Markets & Key Events This Week The Most Important 48 Hours of the YearWednesday is going to be extraordinary. In the same 24-hour window, we get earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon, followed by the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Then Apple reports on Thursday. This is the most concentrated earnings and macro event risk I can remember in a single week. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady. The Iran conflict has clouded the inflationary outlook, making any cut politically and economically difficult to justify right now. What matters is the language. Any hint of a cut timeline being pushed back further could hit rate-sensitive sectors hard. There is also a significant corporate story today: Microsoft has announced it is ending its exclusive partnership with OpenAI. The revenue-sharing agreement between the two is also set to end. Microsoft shares are down on the news. This is worth watching closely — it signals a shift in the AI landscape that could have broad implications for how the sector is valued. One positive: the Department of Justice has dropped its probe into Jerome Powell, clearing the path for Kevin Warsh's expected nomination to the Fed Board. That removes a layer of political uncertainty from the bond market, which has been a drag on sentiment. Also worth noting: Bill Ackman's Pershing Square is expected to raise roughly $5 billion in an upcoming IPO, with the listing price set on Tuesday. A high-profile listing of this nature is a sign of confidence in market conditions.
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Live Market Snapshot Today's Numbers — 27 April 2026, 2:15 PM EDTHere is where the key assets stand right now, with live data pulled this afternoon. |
Diary: Key Events This Week What to Watch, Day by Day |
For Those Who Love Trading & Studying The Code That Broke Wall StreetIf you love trading and studying the markets, this one is essential viewing. It tells the story of a trader who made $11 billion using algorithms — and breaks down exactly how mathematical models and systematic approaches can remove human emotion from trading entirely. In a week as volatile as this one, that is a lesson worth revisiting.
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Samuel's Trading Playbook How I Am Approaching This WeekThis is not a week for bold directional bets. It is a week for patience, precision, and protecting what you have built. On US equities, I am not chasing the record highs. The rally is narrow and the event risk on Wednesday is enormous. I would rather miss the first 1% of a move after earnings confirm the thesis than be caught on the wrong side of a miss. Patience is a position. On GBP/USD, the 1.35 floor is holding well. If the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected on Wednesday, we could see a short-term dip, but the underlying support from UK inflation data is strong. I am watching 1.3500 as the key level to hold. On oil, the $100 level is now psychological support. Any confirmed ceasefire news or Hormuz reopening could trigger a sharp 5-10% reversal very quickly. If you are long oil, keep your stops tight and your position size sensible. On gold, the pullback to $4,695 is interesting. Gold is easing ahead of the Fed decision, which is typical behaviour. If the Fed holds and sounds neutral, gold could find a bid again. I am watching the $4,680 support level. On Bitcoin, the pullback from $79k to $76,700 is a healthy consolidation after a strong run. The broader crypto sentiment remains positive, but I would not be adding aggressively until we see how risk appetite holds up after Wednesday's events. |
Stay sharp, manage your risk, and trade well this week. Samuel Leach Founder, Samuel & Co Trading samuelandcotrading.com |
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This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All market data sourced from Yahoo Finance as of 27 April 2026, 2:15 PM EDT. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and you may lose more than your initial investment. © 2026 Samuel & Co Trading. All rights reserved. |