Weekly Market Outlook

Week of 21 April 2026  |  Issue #001

This Week's Big Story

Earnings, Escalations, and Everything In Between

Geopolitics is making noise, but the fundamentals are talking louder. Here is everything you need to know to trade the week ahead.

Samuel Leach  ·  Samuel & Co Trading  ·  5 min read

The Big Picture

Geopolitics vs. Fundamentals: Who Wins?

The central tension in markets right now is a tug-of-war between geopolitical noise and strong underlying fundamentals. The US-Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices sharply higher. Oil spiked above $119 per barrel at its peak before pulling back to around $95 for Brent crude today.

But here is what matters: despite all of this, markets are holding up. The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs, and corporate earnings are expected to deliver their sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth at 13.2% for Q1 2026.

UK Markets

A Welcome Surprise From the ONS

The UK labour market data released this morning was genuinely encouraging. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the three months to February, down from 5.2% and well below the consensus forecast of no change. Employment rose by 25,000 people over the same period.

Wage growth also beat expectations. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose 3.6%, above the 3.5% forecast. The Bank of England will be watching this carefully. Stronger wages complicate the case for aggressive rate cuts, but the broader picture still points towards further easing later in the year.

The FTSE 100 is trading near 10,609, having dipped slightly on Monday as energy-sensitive travel and leisure stocks came under pressure. easyJet, Ryanair, and Rolls-Royce all sold off, while BP and Shell moved higher on the other side of the oil trade.

US Markets

Earnings Season Takes Centre Stage

This is the week earnings season really gets going. Nearly 20% of the S&P 500 reports this week, including Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Intel, and American Express. Of the companies that have reported so far, 88% have beaten EPS estimates — an exceptional hit rate, and one of the reasons the market has been so resilient.

US retail sales for March are also due today, with the consensus pointing to a 1.3% monthly increase — the strongest reading in over a year. Tax refunds have been running ahead of schedule, putting money back into consumers' pockets.

The other major event today is Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee for the role of Fed Chair. His views on rate cuts and the Fed's balance sheet will set the tone for rate expectations heading into the summer.

Market Snapshot

The Numbers That Matter This Week

Here is a clean breakdown of the key assets and what they are telling us right now.

Samuel's Trading Playbook

How I Am Thinking About This Week

The traders who will come out ahead this week are the ones who stay disciplined and do not let the noise distract them from the data. Here is my thinking:

On equities, focus on companies with strong pricing power. Technology and defence remain my preferred sectors. The AI infrastructure build-out is very much alive, and earnings season is proving it.

On GBP/USD, today's strong employment data supports a move higher. A break above 1.36 opens the door to 1.37. I am watching this pair closely.

On gold, I would not be chasing it at these levels, but holding a position makes sense as a hedge against the current environment.

On oil, this is the most headline-sensitive market right now. Any confirmation of a US-Iran ceasefire could trigger a sharp sell-off. Trade it with tight risk management.

As always, stay sharp and trade well.

Samuel Leach

Founder, Samuel & Co Trading