Samuel & Co Trading • Issue #008 • 15 June 2026

The Peace Deal Rally

Oil Crashes. Stocks Soar. The Fed Decides This Week.

Good morning. This is the Samuel & Co Trading Weekly Market Outlook. Today is Monday 15 June 2026, and the world looks very different to how it did on Friday morning. Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced a framework agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets have reacted decisively. Here is everything you need to know.

The Big Picture

The Deal That Changed Everything

On Sunday evening, President Trump posted on Truth Social: "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" That was the moment markets had been waiting for since February. The US and Iran have agreed to an interim accord to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly 600 vessels have been waiting to exit. The deal includes a ceasefire and relief from sanctions targeting Iran's overseas oil sales, with a formal signing ceremony set for Switzerland on Friday.

The immediate market reaction has been textbook. Brent crude has dropped over 5% to around $83.50 a barrel, unwinding months of war premium in a single session. Equity futures are surging, with the Nasdaq up nearly 2% in pre-market trading. Asian markets have exploded higher, with Japan's Nikkei up 5.5% and South Korea's Kospi jumping nearly 6%. The VIX has dropped sharply from 19.4 to 17.68, signalling a meaningful reduction in fear across markets.

But here is the nuance: this is an interim deal. Iran has agreed to 60 days of talks on its nuclear programme. The removal of sanctions and financial incentives for Iran remain unresolved. Trump himself has warned that military action could resume if nuclear negotiations fail. The market is pricing in a best-case scenario, which means the risk is asymmetric to the downside if talks break down.

Equities

Stocks: Who Wins and Who Loses

United States: The S&P 500 closed at 7,431 on Friday, up 0.5%, and futures are pointing to a further 1.2% gain at Monday's open. The Nasdaq is the standout, up nearly 2% in pre-market, driven by the dual tailwind of lower oil (which reduces input costs for tech companies) and renewed AI optimism. The SPX options market implies a move of approximately plus or minus 118 points (1.59%) into Thursday's expiry, suggesting a range of 7,313 to 7,549 this week.

The biggest stock story of the week is the SpaceX IPO. SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq on Friday and surged 19.2% on its first day of trading, making it the largest initial public offering in history. Goldman Sachs gained 2.6% as lead underwriter and JPMorgan rose 2.3%. The space sector saw some profit-taking in adjacent names, with Rocket Lab falling 10.8%, but the broader message is clear: institutional appetite for high-growth, high-conviction names is back.

United Kingdom: The FTSE 100 advanced 1.6% on Friday to close at 10,534.73, led by banks and travel stocks. HSBC gained 3.9% and IAG (British Airways' parent) surged 7.1% as lower fuel costs transformed the airline sector's outlook overnight. The FTSE is an energy-heavy index, which means it tends to underperform when oil is rising and outperform when it falls. The peace deal is structurally positive for UK equities.

Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 1.9% to 633.21 on Friday. The DAX gained 1.8%, with Deutsche Bank up 6.6% leading the charge. Nokia gained 5.0% after JPMorgan lifted its price target on AI and cloud demand. European equities are particularly sensitive to energy costs given the continent's import dependency, and the peace deal removes one of the biggest headwinds to European corporate margins.

Asia: The Nikkei 225 is up around 5% in Monday morning trading, with South Korea's Kospi near 6% higher. SK Hynix rose 6.1% and Samsung Electronics gained 4.7%, while SoftBank jumped 10% and Tokyo Electron climbed 7.5%. Japan and South Korea are major energy importers, so the oil price collapse is directly positive for their corporate earnings. The next question is whether this broadens beyond the tech and chip sectors.

Key earnings this week: Jabil (Wednesday), Accenture and Kroger (Thursday). The G7 leaders' summit in France runs through Wednesday, which could generate additional geopolitical headlines.

Forex

The Dollar Weakens. The Yen Watches the BoJ.

GBP/USD (Cable): Sterling is trading around 1.3445, with GBP/USD in a 1.32 to 1.36 range for the week. The key driver for the pound this week is not the Bank of England decision itself (a hold at 3.75% is near-certain, with all 65 economists in a Reuters poll expecting no change), but rather Wednesday's UK inflation data and the tone of the BoE's vote split and minutes. If the vote is 8-1 or 7-2 for a hold, that is hawkish for sterling. If it is closer, the pound could sell off. Watch 1.3400 as key support.

EUR/USD: The euro has broken back above the key 1.1575 to 1.1600 resistance zone and is trading near 1.1620 this morning. The dollar is selling off broadly as lower oil prices reduce US inflation expectations and push Treasury yields lower. The 2-year US Treasury yield has gapped down to below 4.03%, approaching the key 4.00% level. If the Fed strikes a neutral-to-dovish tone on Wednesday, EUR/USD could push toward 1.17.

USD/JPY: This is the most interesting currency pair this week. USD/JPY briefly dipped below 160.00 early Monday before stabilising near that level. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% at its meeting on Tuesday, which would be the highest BoJ rate since 1995. However, Japan's recently softening inflation data raises questions about how aggressively the BoJ will guide for further hikes. If the BoJ hikes but sounds cautious, USD/JPY could bounce back above 160. If they signal further tightening, we could see a sharp move toward 157.

AUD/USD: The Aussie dollar has risen clear of 0.7085, up from its Friday close below 0.7050, as risk appetite improves and commodity currencies benefit from the broader dollar weakness. Australia is a major commodity exporter and the peace deal is broadly positive for the AUD.

The Fed on Wednesday: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. The bigger focus is the updated dot plot and Chair Kevin Warsh's first post-meeting press conference. Markets will be watching whether war-driven inflation has pushed the projected 2026 rate path higher. A dovish surprise from Warsh could send the dollar sharply lower and give equities a further leg up.

Commodities

Oil Crashes. Gold Rebounds. What Comes Next?

Oil: Brent crude is trading near $83.50 a barrel, down from over $110 just weeks ago. Traders are bracing for a surge in supply from the nearly 600 tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf and now preparing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. However, the pace of recovery will be gradual. The US Secretary of Energy has acknowledged it could take "many months" for energy supplies to return to normal, as mines may need to be cleared and port infrastructure has been damaged. Current prices are still around $13 above pre-war levels, suggesting there is further downside if the deal holds.

Gold: Gold is rallying strongly, up 2.3% to $4,336 this morning. This may seem counterintuitive given that a peace deal should reduce safe-haven demand, but the dynamic here is more nuanced. Lower oil prices have prompted traders to scale back expectations for further interest rate hikes, which is positive for gold. Additionally, following last week's capitulation-style sell-off, positioning has become considerably cleaner. Hedge fund net longs in gold have dropped to their lowest level in more than a year, meaning there is less crowded positioning to unwind. The key upside hurdle is the 200-day moving average near $4,450. A break above that level would signal a more sustained recovery.

Agriculture: The combined net long across major crop futures has collapsed by 83% from last month's four-year high, according to the latest COT report. This dramatic liquidation leaves positioning considerably cleaner and creates the conditions for a potential recovery in agricultural commodities if supply concerns re-emerge.

Digital Assets: Bitcoin is trading near $65,700, extending its recovery from this month's lows below $60,000. Ethereum has climbed back toward $1,716. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85.9 million of net inflows on Friday, the strongest daily intake in several weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT attracting $57.7 million. Institutional investors appear to be rebuilding exposure as geopolitical tensions ease. However, options activity suggests investors remain cautious, with large protective structures appearing across IBIT, RIOT and other crypto-linked equities ahead of this week's Fed meeting.

Fixed Income

Bond Yields Fall as Inflation Fears Ease

US Treasury yields are retreating sharply this morning. The benchmark 2-year yield has gapped down five basis points to below 4.03%, approaching the key 4.00% psychological level. The 10-year yield has dipped below 4.43%, just below the range lows of earlier this month. The message from the bond market is clear: if oil stays lower, inflation comes down, and the Fed has less reason to keep rates elevated.

In Japan, the 2-year JGB yield has dipped below 1.40% and the 10-year has fallen more than five basis points to near 2.58%, even as markets price in a BoJ rate hike tomorrow. This is the bond market telling you that lower global energy prices are a bigger disinflationary force than one central bank rate rise.

Live Market Snapshot

Today's Numbers — 15 June 2026

Diary

Key Events This Week

Samuel's Playbook

How I Am Trading This Week

Equities: I am bullish on the Nasdaq and US tech into the open. The combination of lower oil, a falling VIX and renewed AI momentum is a powerful setup. However, I am not chasing the open. I want to see the S&P 500 hold above 7,400 on any intraday pullback before adding to long positions. The SpaceX IPO pop tells me institutional risk appetite is back, and that is the environment where growth stocks outperform.

Forex: I am watching USD/JPY very closely ahead of tomorrow's BoJ decision. If they hike and sound hawkish, I want to be short USD/JPY targeting 157. If they hike but sound cautious, the pair bounces back above 160 and I stay flat. On GBP/USD, I am trading the range (1.3400 to 1.3600) until Wednesday's UK inflation data gives me a clearer directional signal. I am not taking a big sterling position ahead of two central bank decisions in three days.

Commodities: I am not chasing oil lower from here. The $83.50 level already prices in a lot of good news, and the deal is still interim. If talks break down, oil snaps back violently. I am watching gold for a break above the 200-day moving average at $4,450. If it gets there and holds, that is a strong buy signal for a sustained recovery. Below $4,300 and I reassess.

The big risk this week: The Fed. If Kevin Warsh sounds more hawkish than expected on Wednesday, the dollar rallies, bonds sell off and equities give back some of today's gains. That is the scenario I am hedging against. Capital preservation first, then participation in the upside.

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