Monday Market Briefing: March 10, 2025

Weekend Market Recap

Good morning! Markets are coming off a weekend that was anything but quiet. Trade tensions flared up as the White House shocked markets by slapping new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, only to partially roll them back a few days later​. This policy whiplash has left investors scratching their heads. China, for its part, vowed retaliation over what it called “arbitrary tariffs”​, fueling fears of an escalating global trade war. Geopolitically, the Russia-Ukraine conflict saw a major flare: Russia launched massive missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and U.S. President Trump responded by threatening fresh sanctions on Moscow until a ceasefire is reached​. He even declined to rule out a U.S. recession when pressed in an interview, as flip-flopping tariff moves added to market confusion​, Central banks also made headlines. The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 0.25% rate cut last week, bringing its deposit rate down to 2.50%​. ECB President Lagarde emphasized downside economic risks (trade wars will do that) even as she left the door open for future easing. Over in the US, Federal Reserve officials entered their pre-meeting blackout period, so no Fed speak to parse this week. The Fed’s next meeting is March 19, and after the latest data, markets overwhelmingly expect no change in U.S. interest rates​. All told, it was a weekend of heavy news flow – enough to keep traders on their toes as the new week kicks off.

Equities Performance

Equity markets are trying to shake off last week’s jitters. On Friday, Wall Street managed a relief rally: the S&P 500 rose about 0.55%, the Dow added 0.52%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed with a 0.70% gain​. It seems a weaker jobs report (more on that later) had investors betting on a dovish Fed, which gave stocks a bit of a tailwind. Despite the late-week bounce, it’s been a volatile stretch – earlier in the week the S&P had been under pressure, so Friday’s uptick was a welcome breather for the bulls.

European stocks were more mixed. After a strong run, profit-taking hit Europe on Friday – Germany’s DAX slid 1.75% and France’s CAC also declined, while London’s FTSE 100 was essentially flat​. This followed a week in which European and Asian markets actually outperformed U.S. stocks by a wide margin. Case in point: Hong Kong’s index and the DAX posted weekly gains that beat the S&P 500 by 8.7% and 5.1% respectively​, as global investors rotated into non-U.S. equities. Indeed, many hedge funds shifted exposure toward European and HK stocks and into defensive sectors last week​. In the U.S., we saw a move into high-quality, low-volatility names and away from higher-beta cyclicals​ amid the turmoil.

As we kick off Monday’s session, sentiment is tentative but hopeful. Asia-Pacific markets early today leaned positive – Australia’s ASX 200 futures were indicating a solid open​– suggesting some of Friday’s momentum is carrying over. Traders will be watching if U.S. futures can build on that rebound or if renewed trade anxieties put a damper on the mood. Keep an eye on whether defensive leadership continues or if cyclicals try to make a comeback. The key trend shaping today is this push-and-pull between dip-buyers (emboldened by hopes of easier central banks) and risk-off sellers (wary of geopolitical landmines). In short, the bulls and bears are still duking it out, but at least the bulls showed some fight at the end of last week.

Crypto Update

The crypto market had a rather rough weekend, reminding everyone that volatility isn’t exclusive to stocks. Major cryptocurrencies sold off over the weekend, in part due to the same macro jitters hitting other markets. By Monday morning, Bitcoin had fallen about 4% in 24 hours, briefly dipping below the $80k level. It was trading around $82,600 as of this writing​. Likewise, Ethereum slid roughly 5% to about $2,070​. The total global crypto market cap is down to roughly $2.7 trillion, off ~4.4% from yesterday. In the altcoin arena, it was a sea of red: coins like Solana dropped ~7%, Cardano -7%, XRP -5.6%, and Dogecoin -8.6% over the weekend​. Clearly, when risk aversion hits, it hits crypto even harder.

What’s driving the decline? A mix of factors. Concerns about the U.S. economy and global trade tensions have spilled into the digital asset space, curbing the risk appetite of crypto traders​. There was also some high-profile regulatory news: the Trump administration continues to engage with crypto in surprising ways. In fact, President Trump issued a new executive order to establish a “Bitcoin reserve” for the U.S. government​. Yes, you read that right – akin to a strategic oil reserve but for Bitcoin. The reserve would consist of seized crypto assets (with a plan to acquire more without using taxpayer money). This plot twist in U.S. crypto policy initially sent BTC prices on a wild ride late last week (the announcement saw Bitcoin briefly spike then pull back), and it underscores how far crypto has come into the policy spotlight. On a more positive note for crypto, U.S. officials also signaled support for stablecoins as part of the financial system, noting they could help keep the dollar dominant in digital finance​.

Overall, the crypto mood to start the week is cautious. Bitcoin is still up significantly year-to-date (it was near $90k just a couple weeks ago), but the current pullback shows the asset class is not immune to broader market headwinds. Traders will be watching if $80k holds as a support level for BTC – a failure to hold that could trigger another wave of technical selling. On the upside, any calming of macro fears (or a softer U.S. dollar) could quickly refuel crypto’s rally. For now, crypto enthusiasts might want to buckle up and perhaps avoid checking their portfolio every other minute – as always, volatility is the name of the game in digital assets, for better or worse.

VIX & Volatility

Market volatility has been running high, but we saw a bit of a cooldown heading into the weekend. The Wall Street “fear gauge,” the VIX, closed Friday around 23.4, down about 6% on the day​. That decline in the VIX indicates that traders were a tad less anxious going into the weekend compared to earlier last week when volatility spiked. Still, a VIX in the low 20s is elevated relative to the calm days we had a few months ago – so investors remain on edge, just slightly less so than during the peak of last week’s sell-off.

It’s worth noting that some of the forced selling and hedging activity may be abating. Technicals helped here: the S&P 500 recently tested and held its 200-day moving average (a key support), which suggests the wave of systematic selling (e.g. by trend-following funds) might be mostly worked through for now​. In fact, by Friday we saw signs of exhaustion in the selling and a few brave buyers stepping back in. Many hedge funds had already repositioned into low-volatility, defensive stocks and even raised cash​, which might limit further downside unless we get another shock.

Investor sentiment is still cautious, but perhaps too bearish, which can be contrarian bullish. Some market analysts point out that after such a rapid swing in sentiment, the market may be primed for a short-term bounce. The extreme moves of the last couple of weeks have arguably been overdone, and bearish sentiment may have peaked – a few contrarian traders are now looking for opportunities to “fade” the fear​. In plainer terms, when everyone is panicking, that’s often when smart money starts nibbling on risk again. If volatility continues to ebb early this week, it could encourage more dip-buying.

That said, complacency is nowhere near setting in. The VIX in the 20s means options traders are still paying up for protection. Any fresh curveball (say, an unexpected tariff announcement or geopolitical flare-up) could send volatility right back up. Market positioning suggests many are still hedged and expecting choppiness – put options remain in demand and cross-asset volatility (FX, bonds) has been elevated as well. For now, though, the fact that the VIX actually fell on a Friday (when traders often hedge over the weekend) is a small positive sign that perhaps the worst of the turmoil might be passing. Watch if the VIX can break below 20 in coming days – that would signal a real restoration of calm. Conversely, a spike back above 25 would flash warning signs that risk-off is regaining the upper hand.

Key Economic Data & Jobs Report

It’s a big week on the economic front, and traders are digesting the latest data. On Friday, the much-awaited U.S. jobs report for February came in weaker than expected. The economy added 151,000 jobs last month, falling short of consensus forecasts of ~170,000. It’s the smallest monthly gain in a while and notably the first jobs report reflecting policies of the new administration, according to some analysts. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% (from 4.0% prior)​. In short, the labor market is showing signs of cooling off. For the Fed, that’s actually a welcome development – a bit less heat in the job market could mean less pressure on wages and inflation. Indeed, this softer jobs number, combined with other recent weak indicators, has raised concerns about an economic soft patch but also bolstered expectations that the Fed will stay on hold in the near term. Fed futures are pricing in basically a 0% chance of a rate hike in March (roughly 93% odds of no change next week), and even the odds of rate cuts later this year have crept up.

Now the spotlight shifts to inflation. The US February CPI (Consumer Price Index) report is due Wednesday and is arguably the marquee event for markets this week​. Traders will be watching this one like hawks (or doves!). Current expectations: headline CPI is forecast to rise about 0.3% month-on-month, which would bring the year-over-year inflation rate down to around 2.9% (from 3.0% in January)​. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) is seen at +0.3% m/m as well, and 3.2% y/y​. If the inflation data comes in cooler than that – say core at 0.2% m/m – it would likely spark a sigh of relief across risk assets (and a further bond rally). However, another upside surprise like we saw in January’s report would revive stagflation worries and could spook both stocks and bonds​. The Fed will not have the benefit of commenting on this CPI in real-time due to its blackout, but you can bet they’ll be watching closely. Essentially, Wednesday’s CPI could make or break the case for any Fed action (or inaction) on March 19.

Beyond CPI, there are other data points to keep an eye on. On Tuesday, the U.S. JOLTs job openings for January are due, which will show how demand for labor is trending (last reading was ~7.6 million openings​ – still high, but any significant drop could reinforce that the labor market is loosening). We’ll also get the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (small businesses’ hiring and pricing plans can be an inflation harbinger) and later in the week the PPI (producer prices) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (with an eye on the inflation expectations component)​. In Europe, the calendar features Eurozone industrial production and the ECB’s Lagarde speaks on Wednesday – given the recent ECB rate cut, any additional hints from her on policy will be dissected. Also of note, the Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday: a 25bp rate cut is about 90% priced in by markets​ as Canada’s central bank continues its pivot toward easing. If the BoC cuts as expected, it would be its second cut this year, highlighting how the global monetary policy tide has started to turn more accommodative.

Globally, one interesting development is coming out of China. Over the weekend, China’s National People’s Congress has been underway, and the latest data showed Chinese inflation actually dipped into negative territory – prices fell ~0.7% in February year-on-year​. This whiff of deflation in China is prompting expectations of further stimulus from Beijing to boost consumption and growth​. Any announcements from China’s NPC meeting (such as economic targets or stimulus measures) could ripple through commodity and currency markets. And let’s not forget, this Friday the UK will report January GDP and manufacturing data​, which will be key for the Bank of England’s outlook after it cut rates last month (the BOE’s base rate is now 4.5%​ following that February cut).

In summary, the week is packed with data that could move markets. Today is relatively light on scheduled releases, which means the market may take its cues mainly from news and technicals until the big CPI print hits. The weaker U.S. jobs report has set the tone by nudging the Fed toward the sidelines, and now the question is whether inflation corroborates that dovish tilt. If we see cooling price pressures, it could validate the market’s optimism that the Fed’s job is nearly done – a potential positive for stocks and bonds. If not, buckle up for renewed volatility. Either way, it’s an “eyes on the data” kind of week.

Commodities & Oil

Oil and commodities are navigating a push-pull between macro fears and supply quirks. Let’s start with oil: lately it’s been a rough ride for the energy bulls. Crude oil prices have been on a multi-week slide – in fact, U.S. WTI crude just notched its 7th straight weekly decline, and Brent crude its 3rd​. Concerns about global growth (exacerbated by the U.S. tariff tussles) and rising OPEC+ supply have been a double whammy for oil. Last week’s trade war escalation raised worry that fuel demand could take a hit if economic growth slows, and we also saw Saudi Arabia cut its official oil prices to Asia for the first time in months​ – a signal of softer demand in the world’s top importing region. All that had oil grinding lower for most of the week. However, we did get a bit of a bounce into the weekend. On Friday, oil prices clawed back some losses after President Trump said the U.S. would ramp up sanctions on Russia if no Ukraine ceasefire is reached​. That geopolitical risk jolt helped WTI settle around $67.0/barrel and Brent around $70.4/bbl, both up roughly +1.2% on the day​. As of this morning, though, oil is slightly softer again – Brent is hovering near $70.3 and WTI near $67​. It seems tariff uncertainty (and even chatter about potentially easing some Russia energy sanctions to counter high prices) is keeping a lid on any oil rally​.

Looking at the bigger picture, WTI crude has fallen about 6-7% year-to-date, and is down ~15% from its January highs, largely on these demand worries. But with oil now in the mid-$60s, some analysts see value emerging. Technical support for WTI is eyed in the mid-$60s (around $65). Barring further bad news, that zone could hold – one analyst noted much of the bad news is likely priced in, and expects oil to find a floor at ~$65 and recover back toward $72 in the coming weeks​. We’ll see if OPEC+ has any response as well; so far they’ve been increasing output modestly, which has contributed to the supply overhang. For oil traders, it’s a game of tug-of-war between bearish forces (weak data, ample supply) and bullish wildcards (geopolitical tensions, any surprise OPEC action). Keep an eye on U.S. inventory data mid-week and any headlines from the Middle East – those could swing oil either way.

Switching to precious metals, we find a much shinier story. Gold prices are nearing record highs, living up to their safe-haven reputation in this uncertain environment. The yellow metal is currently trading around $2,914 per ounce​– essentially at the highs of the year and up about 10.7% year-to-date​. Gold barely budged on Friday (down a hair, -0.2%​), which in context is a sign of strength given stocks rallied (often gold dips when equities rise). On Monday morning, gold actually inched higher to ~$2,917, supported by a weakening dollar and those persistent safe-haven flows​. With the U.S. dollar index hovering at a 4-month low​, dollar-priced gold becomes cheaper for overseas buyers, adding an extra boost.

Investors have been flocking to gold for a few reasons: trade war fears, recession anxieties, and a general desire for an inflation hedge. It’s the classic “uncertainty trade.” One analyst noted that with mounting downside risks to global growth and big questions around U.S. foreign/trade policy, gold’s appeal has only grown​. In fact, market chatter is now about the possibility of gold breaking that psychological $3,000/oz barrier. We haven’t seen gold with a 3-handle ever, but some analysts think we “will breach $3,000 soon, probably in the next couple of months” if current trends continue​. Such a move would likely require either a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sharp drop in the dollar, or a flare-up of inflation that sends real yields even lower. Not out of the question, but far from guaranteed – still, the fact that credible analysts are even talking about $3k gold shows how bullish sentiment has become.

In the other metals, performance has been a bit mixed. Silver has been tagging along with gold to an extent – it’s around $32.8/oz after a dip on Friday​, and up about 5% YTD. Industrial metals, which are more tied to growth expectations, have lagged. Copper, often called “Dr. Copper” for its diagnostic powers on the economy, fell to roughly $4.71/lb​, down almost 2% on Friday amid those global demand worries. Copper is off its highs, essentially flat on the year, reflecting the market’s tempered view of industrial activity (especially with China’s latest data soft). If China rolls out stimulus from the NPC, copper could catch a bid – something to watch. Meanwhile, the iron ore price (a key input for steel) is around $101/tonne​, having been relatively stable recently, though China’s construction outlook will drive it going forward.

All in all, commodities are telling a tale of two narratives: Growth-sensitive commodities (like oil and base metals) are subdued on economic worries, whereas safe-haven and inflation-sensitive commodities (gold, silver) are thriving amid uncertainty. For traders, there are opportunities on both sides – e.g., contrarians might look at oversold oil for a rebound play if any good news hits, while others might ride the momentum in gold but with one finger on the sell trigger if calm returns. For now, the “commodity king” title firmly belongs to gold, as it rides the wave of investor anxiety straight up the charts.

FX & Macro

The foreign exchange market has seen some big moves, largely driven by the shifting outlooks for central banks and the turbulence in trade policy. The U.S. dollar has been on the back foot recently. In fact, last week the dollar index (DXY) had one of its worst weeks in years, slipping to its lowest levels since late 2024​. As of this morning, the DXY is floating just above 103, roughly a 4-month low​. The greenback’s weakness comes as traders bet the Fed will pause rate hikes (or even cut later this year), while other regions aren’t deteriorating as fast.

The euro has been a major beneficiary. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged about 4.4% last week​ – its best weekly gain since March 2020 – fueled by a combination of dollar weakness and a perception that the ECB might be closer to the end of its easing cycle. With the ECB cutting rates but also stressing it will watch inflation, European bond yields have not fallen as much as U.S. yields. The yield spread between 10-year German Bunds and 10-year U.S. Treasuries narrowed dramatically in the past month (from around -215 basis points to -146 bps)​. Such a rapid collapse in the yield gap makes euros more attractive relative to dollars. EUR/USD is currently trading around the mid-1.08s – it actually bumped its head on the 1.0870 area on Friday, which coincides with a long-term technical level (the 200-week moving average)​. It has since backed off a tad from that level, but the uptrend remains intact. Forex traders will watch if euro momentum continues; some are cautious that after such a big run, a pullback could be due if upcoming data (like US CPI) surprises in the dollar’s favor. But medium-term, the groundwork of a more dovish Fed vs. a slightly less dovish ECB could keep underpinning the euro.

The British pound has also quietly gained ground, riding the dollar weakness and some optimism that the UK might avoid the worst-case recession scenarios. GBP/USD is trading near $1.30, up from the mid-$1.20s at the start of the year. The Bank of England has already cut rates a few times (Bank Rate now 4.5%​), but there’s debate about its next moves. This week’s UK GDP and wage data will be key for sterling. For now, sterling is benefitting from the global risk rebound and dollar slide. If the market’s mood sours again, the pound (being a “risk-on” currency at times) could be vulnerable, but at least for now, cable (GBP/USD) has the wind at its back.

In the yen corner, we’ve got an interesting dynamic. The Japanese yen typically strengthens in times of global market stress (being another safe-haven), and indeed as U.S. Treasury yields have come off their highs, the yen has firmed. USD/JPY is currently around the mid-130s, down from over 140 a few weeks ago. Part of that is the softer U.S. yields making the dollar less appealing, and part is some safe-haven flows into yen amid the trade war noise. Additionally, there’s anticipation around the Bank of Japan possibly tweaking its ultra-easy policy later this year under new leadership, which could further boost the yen. For now, if U.S. 10-year yields continue to drift lower (they’re ~4.32% at the moment, down from about 4.5% a couple of weeks back), that should keep USD/JPY on a downward bias. Conversely, any spike in yields or a surge in risk appetite (reducing demand for havens) could see the yen give back some gains. It’s a seesaw for yen traders – balancing U.S. rate expectations against global risk sentiment.

Elsewhere in FX, commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars have been under some pressure due to weaker commodity prices and growth concerns. The Canadian dollar (“loonie”) is hovering around 1.38 per USD, having weakened as oil prices fell and with markets expecting the Bank of Canada to cut rates this week. If the BoC indeed cuts on Wednesday, any dovish tone could weigh slightly more on CAD, though much is priced in. The Australian dollar (“Aussie”) is around 0.68 vs USD, pulled down by worries about China’s demand (given Australia’s commodity exports) and a more neutral Reserve Bank of Australia stance recently. However, both AUD and CAD got a lift late last week as risk sentiment improved; further improvement could see them extend gains, especially if commodities find a footing.

One cannot ignore the Chinese yuan either: the USD/CNY has crept up above 7.3 recently (yuan weakness) amid China’s economic wobbles. If Beijing announces stimulus at the NPC, the yuan could stabilize or strengthen, which would help broader EM FX sentiment. Emerging market currencies generally have felt the strain of a potential trade war – currencies like the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan are in focus given they’re directly in the tariff crossfire. Interestingly, the Mexican peso has actually been resilient (trading near multi-year highs around 15.0 per USD) as markets assume the tariffs on Mexico might be short-lived or partially exempt (which they were, as some imports were exempted for now. But any deterioration in US-Mexico trade talks could hit the peso, so it’s a space to watch.

In the bond markets, we’ve seen a global rally in safe-haven bonds. U.S. Treasuries have been well bid – the 10-year yield at ~4.32% is down from recent peaks, and the 2-year yield (most sensitive to Fed policy) has slid under 4.5% for the first time in months. This flattening/inversion persists but both ends have come down on expectations the Fed may ease off. In Europe, bond yields initially fell on the banking stress and haven flows, but with the trade-war-related inflation worries (tariffs can be inflationary) and the ECB’s continued concerns, German yields have been choppy. As mentioned, the spread between U.S. and German yields has narrowed sharply​, which also has implications for currency moves. If this trend continues (say, U.S. yields fall further or European yields don’t fall as much), the dollar could stay soft. On the flip side, a surprisingly hot U.S. CPI could widen the spread again and lend some support back to the dollar.

Put simply, the FX market is all about divergences and policy bets right now. The dollar enjoyed a long reign, but that narrative is fading as the Fed approaches an inflection point. Meanwhile, others (ECB, BOE, maybe BOJ) are catching up or at least not far behind. Add in a dash of geopolitical risk (helping yen, hurting yuan) and you have the recipe for the recent currency volatility. For the coming days, watch the 1.09 level on EUR/USD (a break higher could signal another leg of dollar weakness), USD/JPY around 132-133 (key support zone), and how the commodity currencies react to any shifts in commodity prices. It’s an FX trader’s market: trends have emerged, but headline risk can cause sudden twists, so stay nimble.

What to Watch Today

Looking ahead to today (Monday, March 10), the market’s tone will be set by a mix of news flow, technical levels, and positioning as we gear up for the heavier data mid-week. Here are the key risks and opportunities traders should keep on their radar:

• Trade War & Geopolitics: Any fresh tariff announcements or reversals from Washington could jolt markets without warning. Similarly, keep an eye on the Russia-Ukraine situation – over the weekend the U.S. talked up sanctions on Russia if the war continues​, and any follow-through (or progress toward peace) would move sentiment. Headlines out of China’s NPC (like economic stimulus or hints at retaliation to U.S. trade moves) are also in focus. In short, the trade and diplomatic saga is the big wild card – a surprise tweet or news bite here can swing stock futures, so stay alert. On the flip side, any indication of cooling tensions (even a rumor of renewed negotiations or tariff delays) could spark a relief rally in risk assets.

• Economic Signals & Fed Chatter: While Monday’s calendar is light, traders will be positioning ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report – expect some inflation-gambling in bonds and possibly a cautious tone in equities until those numbers hit. Also, European data (like Eurozone Sentix sentiment today, and industrial data tomorrow) might get attention in FX markets, especially after the euro’s big run. With the Fed in blackout, we won’t hear from Powell & Co. this week, but any remarks from ECB’s Lagarde (speaking Wednesday) or other central bankers could sway global markets. Also worth noting: the Bank of Canada decision Wednesday – while not today, traders might start pricing in the expected cut, which could move the Canadian dollar and maybe set a tone for central bank easing bias globally​. China’s credit data (due any day) could also drop – a strong number might boost sentiment, a weak one could raise slowdown fears. So even in the absence of scheduled U.S. releases today, the macro narrative will be evolving.

• Equity Technicals & Momentum: U.S. equities are at an interesting technical juncture. The S&P 500 futures’ ability to hold above its 200-day MA (~5764) last week was important. Now the bulls will attempt to push through last Friday’s high (~5791 on S&P futures), which would be a small victory signaling continued upside momentum. Keep an eye on that level – if it’s broken, we could see buyers gain confidence and potentially make a run toward S&P 5850+ in short order. Conversely, if the index rolls over and breaches last week’s lows, expect swift downside as systematic sellers kick back in. The VIX is another one to watch: currently ~23, a drop towards 20 would confirm improving sentiment, while any spike above ~25-26 might precede an equity pullback. Also, monitor the leadership within equities – last week, defensives led, but if we see cyclicals (tech, industrials, small-caps) catching a bid today, that could indicate a broader risk-on turn. Earnings season is largely over, but any notable corporate news (mergers, guidance updates) could create stock-specific moves and possibly sector read-throughs (for instance, any profit warnings could validate slowdown fears).

• Bonds & FX cues: Bonds will trade off any tidbits of inflation expectation. If yields continue to drift down today (10-year testing 4.25% or lower), that could prop up growth stocks and pressure the dollar further. Conversely, any bounce in yields (say on anticipation of a hot CPI) might strengthen the dollar off its lows and cool equity enthusiasm. EUR/USD is one to watch around the 1.0800-1.0850 zone – a continued rise would suggest the market is confident in fading the dollar, whereas a pullback might hint at some pre-CPI profit-taking on that trade. USD/JPY, currently a barometer of risk sentiment and yield differentials, could retest its recent lows if U.S. yields slip – a break below 132 would signal a notable risk-off or dovish tilt scenario. Emerging market currencies like the yuan and peso will react to any trade news – surprisingly, the peso has been strong despite tariff threats, but it could reverse if tensions worsen, so FX traders will be on guard for that too.

• Commodities & Oil Opportunities: Oil prices are sitting near multi-month lows, but also near potential support. WTI in the mid-$60s means the downside could be limited unless we get more bad news. Many traders are eyeing the $65 level on WTI as a line in the sand – it’s roughly the area where analysts at ING and others see weekly support holding before a bounce. If oil shows signs of basing, there may be a tactical long trade opportunity, especially with positionings quite bearish after a 7-week slide. Conversely, if WTI breaks below $62-$65 decisively, watch out below – that could roil energy stocks and high-yield credit (given many oil companies). Gold will be interesting to watch around $2920-$2950; if it continues its march upward, that tells you that investors are still seeking safety. But if gold stalls or pulls back, it might indicate a slight reduction in fear (or a bit of profit-taking). Commodity traders will also track any news from China’s NPC about commodity demand (e.g. infrastructure spending) which could lift base metals.

In summary, March 10, 2025 is setting up to be a day of wait-and-see with an eye on headlines. The big scheduled catalysts (like CPI) are still a couple days out, so today’s trading could be driven by the ebb and flow of news and sentiment. For opportunistic traders, this environment rewards staying nimble: there are potential bounce plays in some oversold assets (equities, oil) if calm prevails, but also no shame in staying defensive until the macro clouds (tariffs, inflation, growth) clear up a bit.

“Keep your risk managed, your eyes on the screen, and maybe even a smile on your face – volatile markets are challenging, but they also bring opportunity for those prepared.” Good luck out there!​ - Samuel Leach

Samuel Leach

Founder of this awesome newsletter

www.samuelandcotrading.com