Market Brief: A sign of relief?

Author

Samuel Leach
March 13, 2025

Yesterday’s trading session gave investors plenty to smile about. Major indices rallied as cooler inflation data and upbeat earnings fueled a risk-on mood. Traders saw stocks charging ahead, volatility relatively tame, and even crypto finding its footing. Let’s dive into the key highlights from March 12 and see what’s in store for today, March 13, 2025, first of all its’s time to check out my YouTube documentary that just dropped… traders making $700M in a day… check it:

Market Recap (March 12, 2025 Performance)

It was a mixed day on Wall Street as the major indices notched tiny gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped about +0.8%, leading the pack, while the S&P 500 rose around +0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down roughly -0.3 %. In short, bulls were in control to start, and bears went into full force into the close(at least for a day).

Notable stock moves showed a clear risk-on appetite. Mega-cap tech and AI-related names were on fire – Oracle skyrocketed +11% after upbeat earnings and a big AI partnership announcement, even hitting record highs, while Nvidia surged about +7% on renewed chip demand optimism. These moves had traders saying “AI is the new gold rush.” Chip stocks broadly rebounded, with the Philly Semiconductor Index snapping a losing streak. Meanwhile, most sectors put on a strong show: tech and materials led the charge, while defensives lagged a bit. There were a few stumbles – for instance, an airline stock or two hit turbulence on guidance cuts – but overall sector performance was robust. When you see industrials, consumer discretionary, and tech all up, you know the market’s in a good mood.

VIX & Market Sentiment

The “fear gauge” VIX took a chill pill on March 12. After some fleeting spikes earlier in the week, the CBOE Volatility Index eased back down, signaling that investor anxiety has tapered. In fact, the VIX is now hovering around 23 still sitting elevated.

In plain English, a lower VIX reading means traders are feeling a potential rally. Remember, historically a high VIX reflects fear, while a low VIX suggests complacency. Right now, it seems like most folks had a day off today and sat on the sidelines.

What’s behind this mellow mood? Well, cooler inflation data and the prospect of the Fed potentially cutting rates down the line have a lot to do with it. With fears of runaway prices receding, the market’s risk barometer are starting to ease – some might say greed is creeping in as stocks become attractive and volatility pauses. As a trader, that’s a double-edged sword: on one hand, low volatility can be great for steady gains; on the other, over-complacency can set the stage for surprises. We all know that when everyone is on one side of the boat, it only takes a little wave to rock it. For now though, the mood is paused.

Keep an eye on the VIX going forward – it’s telling us a story. If volatility starts creeping up again, it could signal traders buying protection or bracing for a bump in the road. But if it stays low, it’s a sign that for the moment, investors are fairly relaxed about risks. As of this morning, the VIX is indicating a calm sea for trading, which likely means a positive carryover in sentiment into today’s session. Just remember the old adage: when the VIX is low, it’s time to mind your risk (complacency can bite), and when the VIX is high, it’s time to buy. Right now, we’re keeping our seatbelts loosely fastened – just in case.

Forex Update

In the FX markets, the dollar’s loss was the euro and pound’s gain. The EUR/USD caught a bid as the greenback softened post-CPI. In fact, the euro pushed up to about $1.0949, tapping its highest level since mid-2024. Traders cheered the easing U.S. inflation and took that as a cue to rotate into higher-yielding currencies – the euro benefited as expectations firm that the ECB might stay hawkish longer than the Fed. With yesterday’s U.S. data showing price pressures cooling, the dollar bulls took a step back. The euro’s strength was further underpinned by some upbeat Eurozone industrial data (and possibly a touch of relief that the latest European economic numbers aren’t worsening). For now, 1.10 is the big line in the sand – a breakout above could open the door to even more euro gains, whereas a pullback might see support around the mid-1.08s. Currency traders will be watching today’s U.S. PPI and jobless claims for any signs of surprise that could either reinvigorate the dollar or give it another nudge down.

The British pound (GBP/USD) has also been on a tear – cable is hovering not far from the $1.30 mark, a level that has traders’ eyes glued to the charts. Yesterday the pound continued its steady climb amid the general risk-on vibe and a softer USD. Despite some recent hesitation, sterling’s trend has been bullish, and that 1.3000 level is now within striking distance. As one trader humorously put it, “It looks like the pound’s got 99 problems but a breakout ain’t one.” The narrative driving the pound includes expectations that the Bank of England might not raise rates further if inflation is contained – UK wage growth has been cooling, which could actually be a goldilocks scenario (not too hot to force more hikes, not too cold to spark recession fears). This, combined with the Fed outlook turning dovish, has given GBP a relative boost. Technically, if GBP/USD punches through 1.30 decisively, we could see momentum buyers jump in; key support is now around 1.28 if a pullback occurs.

Other currency pairs also saw action: the Japanese yen softened a bit as safe-haven demand waned (USD/JPY ticked up, reflecting the risk-on mood reducing yen appeal), and commodity currencies like the AUD and CAD firmed thanks to stronger commodity prices. Overall, the FX sentiment mirrors equities – a tilt toward risk-taking. The dollar index is off its recent highs, and as long as investors feel confident that the Fed’s next big move is easing, the dollar may stay on the back foot. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data – any surprise spike in U.S. producer prices or a jump in jobless claims could jolt the dollar. But for now, euro and pound bulls have the momentum, riding the wave of a friendly macro backdrop.

Oil & Gold Market Movements

Oil prices found some footing yesterday, giving a nod to the risk-on environment but also reacting to some old-fashioned supply and demand news. WTI crude oil jumped over +2% on Wednesday, climbing above $67.5 per barrel during the session. It was oil’s second day of gains, fueled by a couple of bullish factors: first, the U.S. data showed a hefty drawdown in gasoline inventories (a near 6 million barrel drop, indicating strong consumer demand as drivers hit the road) and only a modest rise in crude stockpiles. That combo of robust demand and limited supply build put a bid under WTI. Second, the broader theme of easing inflation and a patient Fed helped improve market sentiment, which often lifts cyclical assets like oil. On the international front, Brent crude followed suit, trading back up into the low $70s.

That said, oil isn’t out of the woods. Despite this week’s pop, prices remain well below their mid-January highs. The headwinds are still blowing: there’s ongoing uncertainty over OPEC+ production plans – rumour has it some producers might quietly increase output, and indeed reports surfaced that Kazakhstan pumped above its quota. Additionally, concerns linger about demand in China (recent data out of Beijing has shown a slower rebound than hoped), and even a potential tit-for-tat on tariffs (Canada announcing counter-tariffs on U.S. goods) could temper global growth. In short, oil’s short-term bounce is encouraging, but traders are aware of the bigger picture risks. Key levels to watch on WTI are ~$70 (a resistance area) and around $65 as support. If optimism continues, we could see oil make a run back into the $70s, but a reversal in sentiment or any bearish inventory surprise would cap the rally quickly.

On to gold – the shiny metal has been behaving in classic form as a safe-haven barometer. With stocks rallying and the dollar easing, gold held steady to slightly up, hovering around multi-month highs. Spot gold is floating near the $2,920 – $2,930 per ounce region (just under that psychologically big $3,000 mark – yes, we’re getting close to those headlines again!). In fact, gold recently reached as high as $2,962 at one point, reflecting continued safe-haven demand amid some remaining economic uncertainty. It seems paradoxical – why would gold be strong if risk assets are too? The answer lies in those lower bond yields and a softer USD. Easing rate expectations make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, and the dollar’s pullback gives gold a boost (since gold is dollar-priced).

Traders are eyeing gold as a bit of an insurance policy – even as they play the risk game in equities, holding some gold is a hedge in case something derails the party. We saw gold initially dip slightly in early trade yesterday as the dollar firmed up a touch, but it quickly stabilized once it was clear that inflation data was tame and would keep the Fed dovish. Investor sentiment toward gold is optimistic; holdings in gold ETFs have ticked up this week. If volatility stays low and markets keep grinding up, gold might trade in a range, but any flare-up of uncertainty could send it sprinting higher. Key resistance is still the $1,950 and $3,000 levels – if gold breaks $3k, expect a lot of fanfare. On the downside, support is around $2,880. For now, gold is glistening as a steady play: it’s up about 0.3% on the week and reminding everyone why it’s considered a reliable store of value when currencies and stocks get unpredictable. As one trader joked, “Gold’s that friend who doesn’t party often, but you know you can count on in a pinch.”

Bitcoin & Crypto Markets

The crypto market is showing signs of life again, led by a resurgent Bitcoin. After a volatile start to the week that saw Bitcoin briefly tumble below the $80K threshold, the king of crypto has come roaring back. On March 12, Bitcoin surged to roughly $82,377, marking about a +3.7% jump in 24 hours​. Talk about a comeback – it seems crypto traders bought the dip aggressively. To put it in perspective, BTC had been down to around $76K on Monday’s lows, so the recovery has been swift. However, it’s worth noting Bitcoin is still about 30% off its all-time high near $109K set late last year. So we’re not in record territory, but the recent bounce suggests improving sentiment. Many in the market are asking: Is the correction finally over? Some key on-chain indicators and technical signals are pointing to yes, or at least that the worst may be behind us. In crypto-land, of course, confidence can turn on a dime, but for now the mood has shifted to cautiously optimistic.

Key Levels & Market Outlook for March 13, 2025

Looking ahead to today, March 13, the big question is: Can the market uphold yesterday’s momentum? A lot will hinge on whether any new catalysts emerge from economic data or news wires. On the technical front, the S&P 500 is approaching some critical levels. After yesterday’s rally, the index is within spitting distance of a notable resistance zone – around the 5,700-5,650 region. That area marks the upper end of the recent range and coincides with some prior highs. Immediate resistance is estimated around 5,650 (give or take) and if the S&P can break through that, we could see momentum algos kick in for another leg higher​. Beyond that, the next psychological target would be the 5,700 level. On the flip side, support for the S&P 500 is in the low 5,550s near the 20-day moving average; more solid support sits at the 5,400 level, which also happens to be a prior breakout level from earlier in the year. As long as the S&P stays above 5,600, the uptrend base case remains intact​. Traders will be watching these levels closely – a break above resistance could trigger FOMO buying, while a dip below support might embolden the bears to test lower levels (like the big round number at 5,000, which is seen as strong floor support barring any major shocks).

Other markets have their own key levels to watch: For the Dow, 40,000 is the obvious psychological milestone (we’re not there yet, but inching closer), with support around that level. The Nasdaq 100 is eyeing 19,000 as a support area. And in the crypto realm, as noted, Bitcoin’s $85K level is pivotal resistance, while $78K is support. Keep an eye on the VIX around the 23 level – if it stays high and drifts lower to 20 or below, that’s a green light for bulls; a spike back above 23 would be an early warning sign of turbulence.

From a market outlook perspective, the backdrop for today leans positive but with a dose of caution. This morning, traders are digesting the latest economic data releases. We’ve got the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) out at 8:30 AM ET – remember, yesterday’s CPI showed inflation cooling, and if PPI echoes that with a softer-than-expected reading, it could extend the rally by bolstering the case for Fed rate cuts. Conversely, an upside surprise in PPI might inject a bit of volatility, though one data point likely won’t derail the newfound optimism. We also have the weekly jobless claims report – a key barometer for the labor market. Thus far, claims have been relatively low, reflecting a still-tight job market. If that continues, it reassures traders that the economy remains on solid footing (which paradoxically could be a double-edged sword: great for growth prospects, but it might give the Fed less reason to cut soon). However, any significant jump in claims could spark chatter about a slowing economy – something to watch.

On the earnings front, we’re essentially through the heart of earnings season, but a few stragglers could make waves. Traders will be listening for any notable corporate reports or guidance updates – for instance, if any large tech firm or retail giant updates its outlook, it could sway sector sentiment. Just last night, there were a couple of mid-cap software companies reporting solid numbers, and their stocks are popping pre-market – a reminder that stock pickers still have opportunities even outside the index moves. Also, be on alert for any unexpected news catalysts: a Fed official making unscheduled comments, geopolitical developments, or surprises from overseas markets (Europe’s trading session and any ECB speak can ripple to U.S. futures).

All told, the trader’s edge today is to ride the positive momentum but stay vigilant. The market’s in an upswing with supportive data and sentiment, so “the trend is your friend” as of this morning. I’m keeping an eye on volume and breadth again today for confirmation – strong buying in many sectors at the open would suggest yesterday’s enthusiasm is carrying forward. If, however, we see an early pop and then some fade or profit-taking, it could mean traders are locking in gains ahead of the weekend (tomorrow’s Friday after all, and some might not want to hold too risk-on a book over it).

In summary, today is set up to be another interesting day in the markets. Bulls have the ball, volatility is low, and key resistance levels are within reach – we’ll see if they can push through or if we get a bit of a breather. With a pinch of humor and a pound of insight, the game plan remains: watch those charts, keep an ear on the news, and be ready for anything. Happy trading! 📈

Samuel Leach