Daily Market Brief – March 7, 2025

Author

Samuel Leach
March 07, 2025

Good morning, traders! It’s Friday and the markets have given us plenty to chew on. From equities whipsawing on trade drama to crypto bouncing back, with a side of oil slump and gold glimmer – a little bit of everything. The tone is informal (just like this brief), analytical, and even slightly humorous. So grab your coffee, and let’s dive into the key market insights for today.

Equities

Markets were all over the place on Thursday. The S&P 500 finished down 1.73%, the Dow Jones ended down 1.05%, and the Nasdaq took the hardest hit, dropping 2.4% dominated by trade war fears and global growth concerns. Stocks bounced around like a ping-pong ball, with investors juggling tariff talks, oil price drops, and concerns over corporate earnings. Even though some tech stocks tried to hold their ground, like Nvidia, the broader market couldn’t catch a break.

So, what does this mean for today? Well, it’s a classic case of a relief rally turning into a trap. With VIX levels spiking, we’re still dealing with uncertainty and market fear. There’s definitely still some weakness, but for now, the market’s holding up better than you’d expect given the global backdrop. But keep your eyes peeled—if things stay rocky, expect more sideways trading.

Crypto

Ah, crypto – ever the drama queen. Bitcoin was riding high earlier this week, touching $91,000 on optimism that the trade war might be cooling. However, that rally fizzled out. Bitcoin has since fallen back to around $89,000, still showing a little bit of volatility but nothing too extreme. The crypto market has got a twist or turn ready, and this pullback is no exception. While Ethereum and the other major altcoins are holding steady, the fear and greed index still shows “extreme fear,” so don’t expect wild swings to disappear overnight . If you’re into crypto, just know it’s never a straight line up.

VIX & Volatility

The VIX is up around 22.8, showing that investors are still a bit on edge. The recent sell-off in equities is raising concerns about the global economy and trade. The VIX spiked this week as uncertainty took center stage, with tariffs and economic slowdown hanging over the markets like a dark cloud. The fact that it’s hanging out around 22 shows there’s still fear and hesitation in the air. If we see another sharp drop in equities today, don’t be surprised if the VIX pushes higher—investors are playing it cautious.

Trade Wars

The U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade tensions are still a hot mess. The U.S. slapped 25% tariffs back on imports from Canada and Mexico on March 4, just as the previous delay expired . This sent shockwaves through the markets earliweek. But by Thursday, a bit of relief came in – President Trump gave Canada and Mexico a one-month exemption on auto tariffs . That news lifted market spirits a bit, but don’t get tole. Canada’s PM Trudeau made it clear that tensions aren’t exactly over. While the tariffs are temporarily shelved, we’re still in the middle of a trade war with no clear end in sight. So, keep watching – this situation is anything but settled.

Oil

WTI crude dropped to $66 per barrel yesterday, marking its lowest point in almost two years . What’s causing this drop? A combination of rising U.S. stockpiles a whopping 3.6 million barrel increase last week ), the potential for OPEC+ to ramp up production, and those ongoing tras weighing on demand outlook . Oil stocks took a beating as well – energy names couldn’t catch a break. With crude oil, energy stocks will likely follow the trend. Keep an eye on this space: if we see oil drop below $65, the pain for energy traders could get worse.

Gold & Commodities

Gold is hanging in there, even though it took a slight breather yesterday. After hitting $2,956/oz in February, it pulled back slightly to about $2,916/oz . Despite the dip, the yellow metal is still a safe-haven favorite, especially with all the marity and concerns over inflation and global growth. Gold is still up more than 10% this year, and as long as there’s uncertainty, it’s likely to hold its ground or even rally further. Other commodities are feeling the heat from the oil slump – industrial metals like copper and palladium are struggling, but precious metals like gold continue to attract safe-haven buyers.

FX & Macro

The U.S. dollar took a hit this week, dropping to four-month lows . Trade tensions, along with shifting expectations around Fed policy, weighed on the greenback. EUR/USD four-month high, nearing the 1.085 mark. It’s clear that the dollar’s been under pressure, while the euro benefits from a bit of a bounce as inflation rises in the Eurozone.

Other currencies like the Canadian dollar are also picking up steam. The loonie gained about 0.5% as news of tariff delays from the U.S. provided some relief to Canada . So, with all the drama in the global markets, it’s no surprise to see some volatility in the forex world. As always, on the central banks—they could make a big difference in how the dollar performs in the coming weeks.

What to Watch

As we wrap up the week, here are the key risks, trends, and upcoming data releases on the radar for today and beyond:

  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb Jobs Report, 8:30 AM ET): A solid number here could relieve market fears about a slowing economy. Anything weaker than expected, though, and the market might get spooked again. Keep an eye on wage growth too—this data could set the tone for Fed policy.

  • North American Trade Tensions: The temporary tariff delay might not be the end of it. Stay tuned for any new developments in the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade talks. A lot of moving parts here—one wrong move, and the market could get jittery again.

  • Oil Prices & Energy Stocks: The oil slump continues. Will we see a bounce in prices or further declines? Watch WTI crude and energy stocks closely today—they’re in for a volatile ride.

  • Tech Stocks: With the tech sector under pressure, can the Nasdaq recover from Thursday’s losses? Tech could lead the charge higher if the market gets a rebound, but if growth fears linger, expect more downside.

Stay tuned, it’s shaping up to be another interesting day in the markets. Trade safely, stay informed, and as always: volatility = opportunity.

Samuel Leach

Founder and Chief Researcher 😆